Ted Cruz’s Chances of Losing in Texas: Recent Polls

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is the favorite to win reelection over his Democratic rival Colin Allred in November, although some polls suggest that the race could be tight.
The incumbent Republican is predicted by forecasters to defeat Allred in the November 5 election, as the congressman aims to become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988.
Texas, along with Florida, has been identified by Democrats as potentially in play for the party in both the statewide and presidential elections next week. If Allred were to flip Cruz’s Senate seat, it would play a significant role in helping Democrats maintain control of the upper chamber, where they hold a 51-49 seat majority.
Forecasting and polling aggregator website 538 has Cruz with an average lead of 3.4 points over his Democratic challenger. Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s national average shows Cruz with a 3.1-point lead, with the forecaster giving the Republican a 76 percent chance of victory on November 5.
A recent internal survey conducted by the Democratic polling company GBAO Strategies for Allred’s campaign showed the candidates tied at 46 percent. The poll was conducted from October 18 to 23 among 800 likely voters and does not include a margin of error.
Newsweek has contacted Cruz’s and Allred’s campaign teams for comment via email.
Allred cited the GBAO poll results in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, just over a week before the Texas election.
“We started this campaign 7 points down, and because of our grassroots effort, the race is now tied,” Allred posted. “With 8 days to go, we’re in the 4th quarter, with no timeouts left.”
Other recent surveys have shown Cruz leading Allred in the race for the Texas Senate seat.
An Activote poll of 400 likely voters showed Cruz with a 5-point lead over Allred (52 percent to 47 percent). The survey was conducted between October 21 and 27, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
A New York Times/Siena College survey of 1,180 likely voters from October 23 to 26 revealed Cruz with a 4-point lead over Allred (50 percent to 46 percent). The poll was conducted from October 23 to 26, with the results having a margin of error of around 3 percentage points either way.
Both of these surveys show Cruz with a greater lead margin over Allred compared to what the Republican achieved in the 2018 race against Beto O’Rourke. Cruz defeated the former Democratic congressman by 2.6 points in what was a fiercely competitive and, at the time, the most expensive Senate race in history.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey suggests the race between Cruz and Allred is tighter. The poll of 815 likely voters had Cruz with a 1-point lead over Allred (48 percent to 47 percent). Cruz’s support decreased by 1 point, while Allred’s support rose by 2 points compared to a previous survey in September.
“Allred’s name recognition has improved since last month; 18 percent had never heard of him in early September, decreasing to 15 percent in late September, and to 10 percent this month,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted from October 18 to 21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Forecasters from Race to the White House give Cruz a 74 percent chance of winning reelection in November.